The Economic Crisis and its Implications for the Science of Economics
Much of economics appears to be about trying to predict the future even though it is inherently unpredictable. Instead we need to work with that dynamic instead of trying to outsmart it. We need to embrace the nuance and sharp distinctions I call "digital". We'd rather see nice analog lines trends than accepting the digital discontinuities.06-May-2009

Much of economics appears to be about trying to predict the future even though it is inherently unpredictable. Instead we need to work with that dynamic instead of trying to outsmart it. We need to embrace the nuance and sharp distinctions I call "digital". We'd rather see nice analog lines trends than accepting the digital discontinuities. The most of my comments are here. You may also want to read my initial comments and my follow-up response.

The central point is that traditional models are analog and can’t capture the unexpected events that represent real change. These events can be succeed or fail. The key to evolution is our ability to survive the failures and capture and regenerate the successes. I’ve touched upon these issues in a pervious essay on evolution.